Info

Group name: Group for research of sea level extremes
Short name: Sea level extremes
Research area: Environmental physics
Group leader: Jadranka Šepić

Resarch

Theme #1: Sea level extremes along the European Coasts

Coping with a sea level rise, induced by climate change processes, is one of the most important challenges of modern society. It has been projected that, by the end of the 21st century, mean sea level (MSL) will rise between 40 and 60 cm worldwide. Higher MSLs imply that flood risks associated to extreme sea levels (ESLs) will also increase, with the 100-year return levels of extreme events along European coasts projected to increase between 50 and 90 cm by the 2100. ESLs occur due to a superposition of numerous oceanic phenomena which act over different temporal (from seconds to millennia) and spatial scales (from bays to oceans). Within these theme, contribution of under-researched sub-hourly sea level oscillations to the ESLs along the European coast are studied. High resolution 1-min sea level data measured at more than 100 tide gauge stations, as well as reanalysis, hindcast and future simulations, are analysed in order to: (i) assess present day distribution of sub-hourly sea level oscillations and estimating their contribution to the overall ESLs; (ii) link sub-hourly ESLs to typical synoptic conditions; (iii) estimate future strength and distribution of ESLs related to sub-hourly sea level oscillations. Work of this group will result in comprehensive estimate of intensity, frequency, and spatial and temporal distribution of present and future-day sub-hourly ESLs along the European coasts. The studies are carried out within the activities of the ERC-2019-StG 853045 project “Estimating contribution of sub-hourly sea level oscillations to overall sea level extremes in changing climate (SHExtreme)”, supported by the European Research Council. Research is done in cooperation with scientists from the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries (Split), Hydrographic Institute of the Republic of Croatia (Split), University of Zagreb (Zagreb), Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (Zagreb), Institute of Ocean Sciences (Sidney, BC, Canada).

Theme #2: Strength and variability of the Adriatic sea level extremes

In the Adriatic Sea, extreme sea levels normally occur due to: (i) storm surges; and (ii) meteorological tsunamis. When it comes to storm surges, their effect is often superimposed to other processes acting over different temporal scales: (i) seasonal signal, (ii) planetary atmospheric waves, (iii) storm surges themselves, (iv) tides; (v) the Adriatic seiche and (vi) high-frequency sea level oscillations. Destructive meteorological tsunamis can, on the other hand, occur without any additional constructive interference. Within the theme, we are estimating contribution of selected components of extreme sea levels to present- and future-day floods. To accomplish this goal, we focus on: (i) cataloguing the strongest known events; (ii) estimating contribution of individual processes to extreme sea levels using statistical tools and numerical modelling, (iii) linking extreme sea levels to atmospheric processes, and (iv) assessing future strength and variability of extreme sea levels using outputs of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The studies are carried out within the activities of the project “Strength and Variability of the Adriatic Sea Level Extremes in Present and Future Climate (StVar-Adri), supported by the Croatian Science Foundation. Research is done in cooperation with scientists from the Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries (Split), Hydrographic Institute of the Republic of Croatia (Split), University of Zagreb, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (Zagreb), Institute of Ocean Sciences (Sidney, BC, Canada).

Staff
Publications

Publications

      1. Denamiel, C., Šepić, J., Vilibić, I., 2018. Impact of Geomorphological Changes to Harbor Resonance During Meteotsunamis: The Vela Luka Bay Test Case, Pure and Applied Geophysics, doi: 10.1007/s00024-018-1862-5.
      2. Denamiel, C., Šepić, J., Ivanković, D., Vilibić, I., 2019a. The Adriatic Sea and Coast modelling suite: Evaluation of the meteotsunami forecast component. Ocean modelling, 135, 71-93.
      3. Denamiel, C., Šepić, J., Huan, X., Bolzer, C., Vilibić, I., 2019b. Stohastic surrogate model for meteotsunami early warning system in the eastern Adriatic Sea. Journal of Geophyscial Research-Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2019JC015574
      4. Heidarzadeh, M., Šepić, J., Rabinovich, A. B., Allahyar, M., Soltanpour, A., Tavakoli, F., 2019. Meteorological tsunami of 19 March 2017 in the Persian Gulf: observations and analyses. Pure and Applied Geophysics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02263-8.
      5. Dorman, C. E., J. Mejia, D. Koračin, and D. McEvoy, 2019: Worldwide marine fog based on 58-years of ship observations. Int. J. Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.6200.
      6. Mejia, J., D. Koračin, and E. Wilcox, 2018: Effect of coupled GCM SST biases on simulated climate of the western U.S. Int. J. of Clim. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5817.
      7. Horvath, K., Šepić, J., Prtenjak, M. T., 2018. Atmospheric Forcing Conducive for the Adriatic 25 June 2014 Meteotsunami Event, Pure and Applied Geophysics, doi: 10.1007/s00024-018-1902-1.
      8. Radilović, S., D. Koračin, C. Denamiel, D. Belušić, I. Güttler, and I. Vilibić, 2019: Simulated andobserved air temperature trends in the eastern Adriatic. Atmos. Sci. Letters, doi.org/10.1002/asl.951.
      9. Semmler, T., L. Štulić, T. Jung, N. Tilina, C. Campos, S. Gulev, and D. Koračin, 2016: Impact of reduced Arctic sea ice on atmosphere circulation and cyclone development in an ensemble of coupled model simulations. J. of Climate, 29, 5893-5913, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0586.1.
      10. Šepić, J., Rabinovich, A. B., 2014. Meteotsunami in the Great Lakes and on the Atlantic coast of the United States generated by the ‘derecho’ of 29-30 June 2012. Natural Hazards, 74(1), 75-107, doi: 10.1007/s11069-014-1310-5.
      11. Šepić J., Vilibić, I., Rabinovich, A. B., Monserrat, S., 2015a. Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing. Scientific Reports, DOI: 10.1038/srep11682.
      12. Šepić, J., Vilibić, I., Fine, I., 2015b. Northern Adriatic meteorological tsunamis: Assessment of their potential through ocean modelling experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120, 2993-3010.
      13. Šepić J., Vilibić, I., Lafon, A., Macheboueuf, L., Ivanović, Z., 2015c. High-frequency sea level oscillations in the Mediterranean and their connection to synoptic patterns. Progress in Oceanography, 137, 284-298.
      14. Šepić, J., Međugorac, I., Janeković, I., Dunić, N., Vilibić, I., 2016a. Multi-meteotsunami event in the Adriatic Sea generated by atmospheric disturbances of 25-26 June 2014. Pure and Applied Geophysics, doi: 10.1007/s00024-016-1249-4.
      15. Šepić, J., Vilibić, I., Monserrat, S., 2016b. Quantifying probability of meteotsunami occurrence from synoptic atmospheric patterns. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, 10377-10384, doi: 10.1002/2016GL070754.
      16. Šepić, J., Vilibić, I., Tinti, S., Rabinovich, A. B., 2018a. Meteotsunami (“marrobbio”) of 25-26 June 2014 on the southwestern coast of Sicily, Italy. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175, 1573-1593, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1827-8.
      17. Šepić, J., Rabinovich, A. B., Sytov. V. N., 2018b. Odessa tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and numerical modelling. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175, 1545-1572, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1729-1.
      18. Vilibić, I., Šepić J., 2017. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales. Scientific Reports, 7, 40818, doi: 10.1038/srep40818.
      19. Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., Dunić, N., Sevault, F., Monserrat, S., Jordà, G., 2018. Proxy-based assessment of strength and frequency of meteotsunamis in future climate. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079566.
Projects
  • ERC Starting grant, Estimating contribution of sub-hourly sea level oscillations to overall sea level extremes in changing climate (SHExtreme) (ERC-2019-StG 853045);
  • Croatian Science Foundation project, Snaga i varijabilnost ekstremnih razina Jadranskog mora u sadašnjoj i budućoj klimi (StVar-Adri) (IP-2019-04-5875)
  • Denamiel, C., Huan, X., Šepić, J., Vilibić, I., 2020. Uncertainty Propagation Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Extreme Sea Level Hazard Assessment: The Case of the Eastern Adriatic Meteotsunamis, Journal of Physical Oceanography, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0147.1.
Contact

Contact information
Assistant Professor Jadranka Šepić, lead researcher, jsepic@pmfst.hr
Prof dr. sc. Darko Koračin, researcher, dkoracin@pmfst.hr
Assistant Professor Žarko Kovač, researcher, zkovac@pmfst.hr
University of Split, Faculty of Science, Ruđera Boškovića 33, HR-21000 Split, Croatia
phone: +385 21 619 295
fax: +385 21 619 227

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