Zadovoljstvo nam je pozvati vas na 90. Fakultetski seminar 14. 10. 2026. u B3-68 u 12:15 sa sljedećom temom:
Investigating the vulnerability of estuaries to climate change
koji će održati Peter Edward Robins iz School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Wales, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo. Sažetak i kratki životopisi predavača se nalaze dolje, a u prilogu je plakat za društvene mreže.
Sažetak
Estuarine residence time is a key indicator of biogeochemical cycling, ecological productivity, water quality, and human health risk, yet remains poorly quantified across UK estuaries under present and future climate conditions. We present the first national-scale modelling assessment of residence times across 52 English estuaries using high-resolution bathymetry and Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic modelling. Residence times were estimated from conservative tracer decay under varying river flow and tidal conditions for present-day conditions and projected sea-level anomalies for 2050 and 2100 (UKCP18 RCP8.5). Present-day mean residence times varied from <1 day in small, well-flushed systems to ~100 days in microtidal or large-volume estuaries. Tidal flux, river inflow, and estuary morphology were the primary controls on flushing. Projected sea-level rise reduced residence times across all estuaries through increased tidal prisms and reduced intertidal storage. In Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southampton, and the Ore, these changes exceeded present-day natural variability, indicating substantial shifts in hydrodynamic functioning. These findings provide a national framework for identifying estuaries where climate-driven changes in flushing may affect future water quality in England.
Kratki životopis
Professor Peter Edward Robins is a Physical Oceanographer at the School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, focusing on estuarine, coastal, and shelf sea processes, in particular extreme events and climate change impacts. Following his Degree (Mathematics and Physical Oceanography, 2003, Bangor) and Ph.D (Investigating internal tides in fjords, 2008, Bangor), he has developed estuarine and coastal models for a range of research studies. His recent research has focused on coastal hazards (compound flooding, public health risks, water quality degradation, sediment dynamics), as well as model applications to marine ecology, fisheries, and marine renewable energy. He enjoys working with a wide range of scientists across different disciplines, with climate modellers to ensure their projections are relevant for coastal impact, and with coastal regulators so that his research has real world outcomes.
